Leading and Lagging indicators.

When predicting the future price movements of a stock or other economic factor, analysts talk of Leading and Lagging indicators.

A leading indicator is one that precedes the event under discussion, while the lagging indicator follows it.

We can apply the same reasoning to the decline of Scientology.

LEADING INDICATORS

Decline in book sales. (Early 90's)
Decline in clear completions. (Early 90's but slightly later)

LATE LEADING INDICATORS

Defections and entheta.(current)

LAGGING INDICATORS

Sale of real estate.
Police raids
Splits and coups.
Decline in OT completions.


Each of these indicators follows on from the next. The decline in book sales directly led to the decline in Clear completions but has not yet resulted in a reduction in OT completions. This is because it takes at least twenty years to get to OT8. We can therefore expect to see a gradual decline in OT completions starting in a few years.

The establishment will only begin to lay the boot in once Scientology is in decline. This has started in France and Belgum but has a long way to go.